The budget hubbub is settling down, and now the pay raise waiting game begins. The President’s budget asks for a 2.9 percent raise for civilian workers; uniformed military would get a half percent more, moving up to 3.4 percent. Sounds okay, right off the top. But forget about those numbers — they don’t mean anything. Here’s why.
The budget will (yes, it’s a guarantee) be torn apart limb from limb by members of Congress. You won’t recognize it when they’re done with it. That includes the pay raise. Outside groups and members of Congress already are demanding changes; the National Treasury Employees Union, among others, wants a 3.9 percent raise for everybody, thereby establishing pay parity. That’s the difference (or lack thereof) between what white-collar feds get and what military personnel get. There is often a difference between the two, and not only the unions, but a bipartisan coalition of House members want the pay parity issue put to sleep, and they’ve already told President Bush what they think.
But the number one factor in the pay raise waiting game you’re playing -- and the reason why all the numbers on the table right now are meaningless -- is the presidential race. The Democrats who control Congress think that one of their candidates will be elected to the top job in November, so congressional observers such as Jodi Schneider of Congressional Quarterly are saying that the chances of a post-election omnibus bill are pretty good. That bill would look more like what congressional Democrats want than what a lame-duck President two months away from retirement wants.
That could all change if a Republican candidate takes an overwhelming lead in the polls over the summer and it appears that the Democratic leadership in Congress won’t get a friendly face next January. They might then cut a deal with the White House. But the odds of that happening seem pretty low right now, and so my advice to you is this: Forget about it for now. The numbers flying about are meaningless to you, because you live in the real world, and not the world of congressional battles and political intrigue. Lucky you.
Rose (frose@federalnewsradio.com) is the co-host of “Your Turn with Mike Causey” on Federal News Radio AM 1050, which can be heard each Wednesday at 10a.m. EST. Hear archived programs on FederalNewsRadio.com.
